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07-06-2021
Highlights
Economic Outlook – Strong recovery was driven by the export sector, the success of COVID-19 control measures, and anticipated international tourist arrivals in 2H21
Despite the recent slowdown, Vietnam's economy in 2020 will expand by 2.9%, driven by exports and continued economic recovery.
The economy is likely to continue to rebound in 2021-22F, led by exports and domestic demand. SCBS CIO estimates that the Vietnamese economy will grow 6.5%/7.0% in 2021/22F, compared to 2.9% in 2020, based on the following factors:
Slightly Positive view on the Stock Exchange: Continued earnings growth keeps valuation attractive relative to the past and regional peers.
SCBS CIO has maintained a positive view on the Vietnamese stock market due to (1) continued economic recovery, including monetary and fiscal policies remaining at an easing level; (2) The earnings growth of listed companies has helped valuation of the Vietnamese stock market avoid becoming too tight compared to the past and to regional stock markets; and (3) liquidity in the system remains high from government injections and the return of foreign investment in both direct investment and stock market investment. It is believed that the Vietnamese stock market is one of the dominant markets in the Emerging/Frontier markets group.
Continued economic recovery and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies
The strong earnings growth of listed companies has helped the valuation of the Vietnamese stock market, remaining at less tight levels compared to the past and making it more appealing compared to other regional stock markets.
Liquidity in the system remains high from government liquidity injections and the rebound of foreign direct investment and stock market investment
During 1Q21, the market saw a significant increase in participation by retail investors to 2.98 million accounts (25% YoY). In April 2021, the average daily turnover in all three Vietnamese stock markets increased to USD 888 million, an 18.8% rise compared to March 2021, with the turnover of retail investors accounting for 91.2% of total turnover.
Authors:
- Dr. Kampol Adireksombat - Deputy Managing Director, Chief Investment Office, SCB Securities Company Limited
- Ms. Kesri Ayuttaka, CFP® - Assistant Managing Director, Chief Investment Office, SCB Securities Company Limited
- Chaturapat Thanabutr - Manager, Chief Investment Office, SCB Securities Company Limited